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Esmaeili, B, Hallowell, M R and Rajagopalan, B (2015) Attribute-Based Safety Risk Assessment. I: Analysis at the Fundamental Level. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(08).

Esmaeili, B, Hallowell, M R and Rajagopalan, B (2015) Attribute-Based Safety Risk Assessment. II: Predicting Safety Outcomes Using Generalized Linear Models. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(08).

Golabchi, A, Han, S, Seo, J, Han, S, Lee, S and Al-Hussein, M (2015) An Automated Biomechanical Simulation Approach to Ergonomic Job Analysis for Workplace Design. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(08).

Kim, B and Kim, S J (2015) Credibility Evaluation of Project Duration Forecast Using Forecast Sensitivity and Forecast-Risk Compatibility. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(08).

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Schedule forecasting; Schedule risk analysis; Forecast sensitivity; Kalman filter forecasting; Earned value management; Cost and schedule;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001000
  • Abstract:
    This paper presents a credibility evaluation framework (CEF) that analytically evaluates deterministic project duration forecasts to detect false early warnings and misleading trends. The CEF consists of forecast sensitivity evaluation, forecast-risk compatibility check, and independent sanity checks using probabilistic models. New concepts of the forecast sensitivity index and threshold are defined and used to establish an unrealistically sensitive prediction zone as a graphical tool for quick and quantitative credibility evaluation. The forecast-risk compatibility check assesses the consistency of schedule variability predicted by deterministic forecasts and by standard risk assessment techniques. A hierarchical decision structure based on the compatibility check is also presented. Practical implementation and effectiveness of the CEF are demonstrated using both a notional and a real project. The framework would positively contribute to improving the effectiveness of deterministic schedule forecasts and would be best employed at both project and program levels prior to taking interruptive and burdensome control actions in order to identify false warning signals.

Lee, B, Lee, H, Park, M and Kim, H (2015) Influence Factors of Learning-Curve Effect in High-Rise Building Constructions. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(08).

Wu, C, Song, X, Wang, T and Fang, D (2015) Core Dimensions of the Construction Safety Climate for a Standardized Safety-Climate Measurement. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(08).